Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
