Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
